Osiris · Blog
Trading strategies, setups and systematic approaches.
Every serious post on this blog ends with "write it down." This is the writing-it-down post: the one-page trading plan, section by section, with the numbers, the checklist, the regime switch, and the clause nobody includes: a written inventory of your own failure patterns.
We build tools for fast traders, and honesty requires this post anyway: for most people, the daily chart is the better business. One honest candle a day, fees that stop eating the edge, a life outside the screen, and the reasons even scalpers answer to the daily close.
He turned a $5,000 client account into $15 million, compounding around 60% a year, while checking the market for minutes a day. But the most valuable thing Ed Seykota ever produced is one sentence about why losers lose, and it is the darkest, most useful idea in trading literature.
Smart people trade for years without becoming profitable, and it is rarely the analysis that fails them. The path has a shape: one strategy survived through its bad cycle, fewer and better trades, a process you can repeat on red weeks, and the breakeven phase nobody celebrates. A map of the road, including the boring parts.
Sooner or later every trader discovers the Kelly criterion and concludes math endorses risking 15% per trade. Kelly assumes you know your edge precisely (you don't) and tolerates 50% drawdowns (you won't). What Kelly is actually for.
Every emotional failure in trading, revenge trades, panic exits, stop-widening, has one cause: the position is too big. At the right size a losing trade is boring, and boring traders execute. Size for indifference. The complete guide.
Markets spend most of their time going nowhere, and that is where trend traders give their profits back. The two kinds of ranges, the two-touch rule before a flat deserves your money, how to trade the walls, and the two tells that say the break is coming.
Add a parallel line to a trendline and you get a channel: a range that slopes. How to draw one honestly, sharpen its walls with the lower timeframe, and run the three trades it offers: fading the walls with the trend, riding the break, and reading the swings that stop reaching the far side.
Indicators average the past, so they announce a reversal long after price already showed it. The four phases every market cycles through, the cracks that show up in structure and candle sizes, why a level hammered too often is being eaten, and three ways to trade the turn.
The trends post said buy pullbacks, not peaks. This is the how: grading the trend by which moving average carries it, finding the zone where the dip should die, matching the entry to the trend's strength, and telling a pullback from the start of a reversal.
The previous post taught you to dodge the trap. This one teaches you to trade it: entering where the trapped crowd is forced to exit, with a stop behind the failed wick and the whole range as the target. The setup, the volume tell, and when to leave it alone.
Most breakouts fail, and that is not an accident: false breaks are how the biggest players get filled. What separates a real break from a trap, what the chart looks like before the good ones, and how to exit once you are in a runner.
